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Why property prices will never tank overnight
Why property prices will never tank overnight

In years to come will any of us remember where we were when the US President Donald Trump embarked on his self-styed “Liberation Day”?

The date was 2 April 2025 – which was only one day after April Fools but unfortunately it was no joke – set in a motion global share market chaos after Trump announced a plethora of significant trade tariffs on all and sundry.

Since then, both the US and Australian share markets have experienced significant volatility, largely influenced by global trade tensions and tariff policies, which at the time of writing had been kind of paused for 90 days – apart from China.

The ASX 200 experienced a turbulent week after the announcement, closing about 0.8 per cent lower and while gold miners performed well, most sectors ended in the red.

Tariff impacts wiped $31 billion off the ASX 200, with major sectors like energy and materials suffering significant losses.

The temporary tariff pause led to a rebound, with the ASX 200 rallying 4.71 per cent, but the ramifications of such a wild ride will linger for a long time, including the fact that the decision of one individual in a foreign country can negatively impact the financial well-being of everyday Australians overnight.

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar fluctuated, rallying by almost three per cent to 61.36 US cents during the tariff pause, however, it later dropped to 59.74 US cents, its lowest point since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Stable and steady real estate

I’ve talked and written many times before about the fact that property is an illiquid asset. That is, because real estate is literally bricks and mortar you can’t buy it or sell it instantaneously – and nor should you, because plenty of due diligence should be undertaken before considering either option.

Its illiquidity also means that its price trajectory over the medium- to long-term is much more stable than shares, which can jump up and down from one day to the next depending on a number of factors, such as the most recent whims of the current US President.

While investing in either asset class can improve your financial position over the decades if done strategically, there is very little most individuals can do to increase the share price of a company that they invest in, however, they can buy and sell shares easily because they are a liquid asset.

On the other hand, property investors can maximise their returns by not only purchasing strategically located real estate, but also by undertaking renovations to improve the overall condition of the asset as well as the potential rent that can be achieved. More and more investors are also buying vacant infill sites and constructing brand-new dwellings to maximise their results as well.

Time in the market

Some recent research from PropTrack has highlighted how much timing plays a part in results for stock market investors, whereas purchasing property is all about time in the market.

The research, which looked at the gains in shares and property since the pandemic (but before Liberation Day), found that after a very bumpy ride, the ASX200 had achieved a 71.4 return since March 2020, however, there was a very big caveat to this result.

That’s because for an investor to achieve that return that would have had to buy at the very bottom of the market in March 2020 – exceptional timing and something that would have taken a great deal of conviction at a time of extreme volatility when many investors were fearfully selling off stocks, according to PropTrack. 

An investor who had bought in about a month earlier — when the market had just hit an all-time high — and held on through the crash and subsequent recovery would be looking at a return of just 8.6 per cent!

Looking at property over the same period, though, the research found robust results for most buyers. At the national level, property prices had increased 46.7 per cent since March 2020, according to the latest PropTrack Home Price Index, but performance varied considerably around the country.

Adelaide was the top-performing capital in that time, with the 81.7 per cent growth in property prices putting the South Australian capital slightly ahead of Perth (81.2 per cent) and Brisbane (80.9 per cent). Prices in regional South Australia, Western Australia and Queensland performed similarly over that period.

And since the chaos of Liberation Day, property markets around the nation have continued their momentum – with the added bonus of additional interest rate reductions on the horizon because of the upheaval that was caused by the decision of just one man many thousands of kilometres away from here.

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Disclaimer: The information provided on this blog is for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be financial advice. The content is not a substitute for professional financial advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Always seek the advice of your financial advisor or other qualified financial service provider with any questions you may have regarding your personal finances. Reliance on any information provided by this blog is solely at your own risk.

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